Cosy Science

Following the introduction of Zika in Brazil in 2015, the virus continues to spread across Latin America. However, our understanding of the transmission dynamics and epidemiology of this new threat remains poor.
Although typically thought to cause a mild disease, the perception of the public health threat posed by Zika changed dramatically in late 2015 when a surge in microcephaly cases in new-borns was seen in areas of Brazil following widespread Zika transmission earlier that year. Evidence for a causal link between Zika infection and microcephaly and other serious congenital anomalies is now compelling, and prompted the World Health Organization to declare Zika a public health emergency of international concern in February 2016. However, given the uncertainties in the dynamics of Zika transmission, it is far from clear how policymakers should best respond.
After introducing the epidemiological situation and public health strategies implemented, we will provide estimate of the transmission potential of Zika based on incidence of reported cases as well as incidence of microcephaly. We will also present a simple model of Zika dynamics and highlight some key predictions concerning future epidemics and the potential impact of interventions. Finally we will present some of the ongoing research projects we are conducting to address the current uncertainties.